From: Kharin (kharin@kharin.com)
Date: Mon Sep 15 2003 - 03:23:51 MDT
"I was spooked by Hermit's Chinese-commit-genocide piece but for me it was ruined by its overt anti-Americanism (if that term can be applied to what
appears *in my opinion* to be Hermit's pathological hatred of America)."
As I've said before I am not particularly enthused by the term 'anti-americanism.' Most nations are not in the habit of expecting to be unconditionally loved and one would not expect to hear terms like anti-british (especially at the height of its Empire when such concerns were blithely irrelevant) or anti-european. In fact, the only parallel that springs to mind is being 'un-amercian.'
That said, the piece is an attempt to extrapolate trends from current events. Given that the axis of evil speech threatened both Iran and North Korea while ensuring that the US would be bogged down with Iraq for several years, some of those consequences are already evident; since both countries have responded by accelerating weapons programmes. It would be rather surprising if China did not view such events, note that it is the only state likely to be in a position to challenge the US in the future and prepare accordingly. Even though this is a creative work, I would be very surprised if no-one in the Pentagon was performing similar scenario planning regarding China. If they are not, I would be very worried indeed.
"Incidentally: If history is to be a guide, then be assured China will amount
to zero in terms of global power. It will invert itself as it has done so
many times in its 6,000 year history. China has some advantages over the
West, advantages easily wiped out by us: It is ruthless and devious, it is
not a democracy, it is protectionist, it prostitutes promise of its markets
to steal technology and advantage, its workers are prepared to work for very
little. "
An interesting question. China's economic performance has certainly been far more remarkable than you suggest. To quote the CIA World Factbook:
"The result has been a quadrupling of GDP since 1978. In 2002, with its 1.3 billion people but a GDP of just $4,400 per capita, China stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US (measured on a purchasing power parity basis)."
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html
Within that context, the structure of the Chinese economy has changed rapidly since between 1991 and 1997 the size of the Chinese private sector grew by 71%. The growth rates of some Chinese areas, the Yangtse delta in particular, have been phenomenal. Of course, as you suggest there are factors that may retard this; for example, most of this growth is accounted for in terms of inward investment, while India may yet prove more attractive.
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