RE: virus: Economic Speculation

From: Jonathan Davis (jonathan.davis@lineone.net)
Date: Fri Oct 10 2003 - 03:39:14 MDT

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    Interesting article, thanks.

    I tend towards beings sceptical of 50-year-out forecasts because I think
    they are just a little bit too ambitious. I prefer slightly shorter
    forecasts.

    You might enjoy this one:
    http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/index.html

    It dates from December 2000 and makes for interesting reading.

    Regards

    Jonathan

    -----Original Message-----
    From: owner-virus@lucifer.com [mailto:owner-virus@lucifer.com] On Behalf Of
    Kharin
    Sent: 09 October 2003 21:33
    To: virus@lucifer.com
    Subject: virus: Economic Speculation

    Since one facet of the recent ideohazard discussion was the likely economic
    fortunes of differing countries, I thought this might be interesting:

    http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html

    "In less than 40 years, the BRICs' (Bazil, Russia, India, China) economies
    together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could
    account for over half the size of the G6. Currently they are worth less than
    15%. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the
    richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more
    complex.

    In US dollar terms, China could overtake Germany in the next four years,
    Japan by 2015 and the US by 2039. India's economy could be larger than all
    but the US and China in 30 years. Russia would overtake Germany, France,
    Italy and the UK.

    Of the current G6 (US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK) only the US and
    Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. "

    I think there is some cause for scepticism over this (and over Russia in
    particular) but interesting nonetheless. 

    ----
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