Interesting analysis. Alas, a psycholgical model of these two - even if it is accurate - won't be enough to predict much.

You're assuming Saddam has helped Al-Quaida. But there isn't any evidence for it. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if (the late?) Bin Laden hates Saddam, since his regime is mostly secular. I don't see any reason to believe Irak supported these terrorists.

As for Bush, I'm not saying he's an idiot (I don't have enough data to judge). But he seems so far to be mostly a pawn for people like Dick Cheney. That, and a pseudo-crook who was put in power to give his ultra-rich friends, allies and contributors a big tax cut, as well as the insurance that their business won't be regulated by safety and envirnemental policies.

Of course, my information is very limited, and I can't guarantee my complete objectivity (but who can?). But that's my 2 cents worth.