From: David McFadzean (david@lucifer.com)
Date: Fri Jul 25 2003 - 11:17:38 MDT
Aprpoved: nomic
From: joedees@bellsouth.net
To: virus@lucifer.com
Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2003 00:24:45 -0500
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Subject: Re: virus: Re:Jobs and Human History
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Date sent: Thu, 24 Jul 2003 22:14:49 -0600
To: virus@lucifer.com
Subject: virus: Re:Jobs and Human History
From: "Hermit" <hidden@lucifer.com>
Send reply to: virus@lucifer.com
>
> athe nonrex, I think you are right on the mark.
>
> Energy should already be close to "free", only our short sitedness has
> stopped this from happening. Eventually, somebody will get a clue, and
> it will be. At which point fresh water and most raw materials will be
> extracted from sea water and the cost will tend towards zero.
>
> Nanotechnology will be a reality within 20 years. At which point the
> production of raw materials and processing and assembly of
> manufactured goods will tend towards zero.
>
> The combination of almost free energy and almost free manufactured
> goods will result in the cost of transport and distribution dropping
> towards zero.
>
> I used to think that the above would leave a value in ideas, concepts,
> plans and art. I no longer think this. Given the rate at which AI and
> computer technology is developing, and assuming no major
> discontinuities, within 20 years the typical desktop computer is
> likely to be more intelligent and creative than the most gifted human
> alive; and within 50, more intelligent and creative than the entire
> human race. So the value of creativity will also tend towards zero.
>
> As intelligence and creativity surpassing human capability becomes
> commonplace, this will impact the factors above, greatly accelerating
> the tendency of all goods and services to be delivered free (as the
> cost of accounting will rapidy exceed the cost of of the goods).
>
> Given these trends, the value of money will also tend towards zero.
> The incentive gone, "jobs" and economies are also likely to become
> obsolete. Given the massive acceleration in the slope of all these
> curves as the trends interact, the process of value-obsolescence is
> likely to occur with extreme rapidity.
>
> I think that some of those reading this are likely to still be alive
> when this happens unless some asshole succeeds in blowing all of us to
> hell before then. A possibility which will increase dramatically as
> the Luddites panic when these trends become obvious.
>
> The question is what should we be doing about it.
>
> Kind Regards
>
Energy should be not free, but reasonable. Information, on the
other hand, such as computer programs, video, and music, requires,
training and expertise to properly produce, and should be fairly
compensate for.
This is exactly why communism failed; because they did not
recognize the necessity of compensating to a greater degree for rarer
and more difficult-and-time-consuming-to-cultivate skills. Thus, people
gravitated to the least skill-and-training-intensive lowest common
denominator for which they would nevertheless be equivalently
compensated with those who possessed rarer skills and abilities for
which they had to necessarily sacrifice greater chunks of their life to
master. Why become a capable brain surgeon, a meticulous diamind
cutter,an elite program writer or a musical genius, when slinging hash
or garbage cans will win you the same pottage of filthy lucre? As long
as communism is not a universal system, communist societies have to
compete capitalistically with other more competitive societies which pay
better for such skills as long as they are actually possessed; this
inequity entails a defection brain drain. I noticed the same thing in the
military; the better doctors and dentists migrated to private practice,
while the least competent denominator continued to embrace the safety
and security of the less competitive environment. If people of talent
cannot be commensurately (with their talents and time-consuming-to-
master abilities) compensated for in their chosen field, they will migrate
to another one, or never embrace the economically crippled one in the
first place.
>
> Hermit
>
>
> ----
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